Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
For the safest, best skiing and riding, seek out low density new snow that winds haven't transformed into a slab. Low consequence terrain is still key - deeper persistent slab problems remain a real concern.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable snowpack.
- Southwest winds will likely form thicker, more sensitive slabs on northeast aspects.
- If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large avalanches may be triggered on a number of buried weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and shallow slope angles. Stress on these weak layers will increase as wind continues to load lee areas this weekend.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid lingering or regrouping in runout zones.
- Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Thursday include a few natural storm slab releases to Size 2 from steep alpine terrain in the Fernie area, as well as loose wet releases to Size 1 with ski cutting below treeline. Explosives control targeting persistent slabs that haven't already slid was notably unsuccessful. Large explosive triggers only managed to release storm slabs to Size 2 in the Fernie area.
With that said, more active persistent slab conditions are not yet a distant memory. Last week, large avalanches ran on multiple persistent weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and low angle slopes. Activity has gradually tapered off, but it would be wise to expect that the potential for human triggering remains. On Tuesday, explosive control in the Lizard range produced a few large persistent slab avalanches, ranging from Size 2-2.5.
Looking forward, new snow from recent storms has introduced both an increased load to the snowpack as well as the possibility for storm slab releases to act as a triggering mechanism for deeper weak layers. Expect ongoing southwest winds to continue loading lee aspects even as snowfall tapers off. These winds will also be promoting slab formation and reactivity.
Snowpack Summary
About 40 cm of new snow has buried a new layer of feathery surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects. Moderate to strong winds have been encouraging slab formation over this interface at higher elevations and continuously loading loose snow into deeper slabs in lee areas. The winds have also been also building up cornices along ridges. A thin rain crust may be present about 15cm below the snow surface at 1800 m and lower. This crust likely forms the new snow interface at lower elevations.
Beneath the new snow, a number of buried weak layers have been very concerning over the past week, and appear to be gaining strength very slowly. The early January surface hoar layer is around 60 cm below the surface and the unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 100 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers have been reactive over the past week.
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing around 2 cm of new snow. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -6.
Sunday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 2-5 cm of new snow, continuing overnight. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures around -6.
Monday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Strong west winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -7.
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Fresh storm slabs have formed over yet another weak layer. The new snow is not expected to bond well and continuing winds may make slabs extra touchy. A large storm slab release could provide enough stress to trigger a deeper persistent weak layer.