Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region. Large, destructive avalanches are being triggered in the region, even on surprisingly low-angled and treed slopes. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommend.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain. Large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
- Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
- Use caution when entering lee areas. Recent wind loading may have created wind slabs.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Skier and machine traffic have triggered large avalanches on buried weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and shallow slope angles. These weak layers are touchy and can produce very large, destructive avalanches that run far.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended with current conditions.
- Minimize overhead exposure during periods of warming and/or direct sun on starting zones.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where avalanches may have severe consequences.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, several storm slab and persistent slab avalanches were triggered with heavy triggers and remotely by a skier, generally at treeline and below treeline elevations with depths between 40 and 150 cm on northerly aspects. On Tuesday to Thursday, a widespread avalanche cycle was observed. Numerous large avalanches (size 3 to 3.5) were triggered in the alpine and ran to near the valley floor and numerous size 2 avalanches started at and below treeline. Operators also reported numerous large human, vehicle, and remote-triggered avalanches. Some of these avalanches ran on relatively shallow slope angles (around 30 degrees) and in fairly dense trees. Expect continuing avalanche activity because of the touchy snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack reached its tipping point on Tuesday and Wednesday as warming and precipitation combined to overload buried persistent weak layers in the snowpack and create a large natural avalanche cycle.
Over 100 cm of snow fell within the past week. The snow fell relatively warm with moderate winds, which formed storm slabs. The snow also formed large cornices. This storm snow sits on variable feathery surface hoar in the region. Deeper in the snowpack, an unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below treeline elevations. Below, a rain crust that developed late-November with associated sugary facets are also being stressed. Snowpack test results show sudden fracture characters and high propagation potential for all of these buried layers, indicating that they can be triggered and could propagate into large, destructive avalanches. This has been the case, as shown in the Avalanche Summary.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY: Early morning snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, then mostly cloudy with possible valley cloud, light to moderate westerly winds, alpine temperature near -2 C, freezing level near 1000 m.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy with valley cloud, light to moderate westerly winds, alpine temperature near 0 C, inversion conditions with cold valley air and above-freezing level between about 2000 m and 2500 m.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy with valley cloud, light southerly winds, alpine temperature near 0 C, freezing level below valley bottom with inversion conditions.
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Many avalanches have been naturally and human-triggered in the recent 100+ cm of snow. Incoming warm air temperatures should increase the likelihood of triggering. If triggered, storm slabs could step down to deeper persistent weak layers.