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Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 7, 2018 - 5:23 PM

Valid until

Jan 8, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

There is uncertainty whether forecast heavy precipitation will come as rain or snow. Certainly where it is all falling as snow, the avalanche danger will be HIGH.

Regular season
Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 8, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - January 9, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

30-50cm of new snow at higher elevations has come in warm and is sitting on a newly formed crust. It may react as a storm slab in steep terrain or as a wind slab in wind exposed features.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Expect to see small loose wet avalanches in steep terrain where precipitation is coming in as rain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been reported. Expect to see both storm slab and loose wet avalanche activity on Monday with heavy precipitation coming as a mix of rain and snow.

Snowpack Summary

Cool temperatures through the day on Saturday created a crust on a previously moist or wet surface. Since then 25-40cm of fresh new snow has fallen to bury this crust. Looking down into the snowpack there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December and are now 50 to 100cm below the surface. After heavy rain last Friday penetrated most of the snowpack, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding to the snow above and below. The rain last week has reduced the snowpack depth at 1000m to about 140cm and many early season hazards are still present at

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Mix of rain and snow, accumulation 15-20cm overnight Sunday into Monday and another 20cm through Monday / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature 1

TUESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Light to moderate west wind / Alpine temperature 0

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Light west wind / Alpine temperature 0

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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