Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Jan 6, 2018 - 4:47 PM

Valid until

Jan 7, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

A steady stream of light precipitation should fall as snow at upper elevations and begin to accumulate in the coming days.

Regular season
Saturday - January 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - January 8, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Light snowfall coupled with strong winds out of the southwest will likely form wind slabs in lee terrain. These slabs may be sitting on a thin crust which could increase their sensitivity to human triggering.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity to report from Friday or Saturday at the time of writing this bulletin.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures likely produced a few millimeters of rain as high as 2000 m on Friday, this likely occurred throughout the region. Previous to Friday's rain event, warm alpine temperatures had allowed the upper 5 cm of the snowpack to become moist, even on upper elevation northeast facing features. As temperatures cooled Friday night into Saturday a crust has formed on the surface.

On December 28th and 29th two successive storms produced 50 to 80 cm of snow. On December 29th and 30th strong to extreme winds out of the southwest, south and southeast created widespread wind effect. Time and warm temperatures allowed this snow to settle and bond well with the underlying surface.

A widespread melt-freeze crust formed in mid-December may still be an issue in the northern portion of the region where it's down 50 to 100 cm below the surface, but is likely trending towards dormancy. Around the Coquihalla this interface is now thought to be part of a well bonded mid-pack.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Flurries, accumulations 5-15cm / moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -3

MONDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5cm / Light to moderate southwest wind / Alpine temperature -4

TUESDAY: Cloudy with flurries / Light west wind / Alpine temperature -3

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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