Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Jan 5, 2018 - 5:08 PM

Valid until

Jan 6, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Avalanche danger is expected to remain low for the North Shore mountains, but wet avalanches may still be problematic in the higher elevation alpine terrain of the Squamish area.

Regular season
Friday - January 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - January 6, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - January 7, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Up to 50 mm of rain has saturated the entire snowpack of the North Shore mountains. The same is likely true of higher elevation terrain in the Squamish area, but very isolated pockets of wet avalanches may remain problematic there.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of rain.
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy rain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been reported.

Snowpack Summary

On Friday January 5th the rain began to fall in earnest. As of 17:00 on Friday evening the Strachan Precip Station at 1220 m had recorded 53 mm of total rain fall. This rain has saturated the entire snowpack on all but the highest elevation slopes. 50 to 100 cm below the surface there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December. Snowpack investigation Friday afternoon revealed rain is not pooling at these crusts with any significance.

The rain has reduced the snowpack depth at 1000 m to about 140 cm and many early season hazards are still present at lower elevations.

Weather Forecast

A wet weekend is in store for the South Coast. The freezing level is expected to fluctuate through the weekend, look for rain transitioning to snow mid-day Saturday. On Monday the freezing level may creep above the mountains of the South Coast. Stay tuned for more details.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 2000 m, 15 to 20 mm of precipitation expected, moderate southwest wind.

SATURDAY: Clearing skis, freezing level beginning near 1800 m lowering to 1000 m around lunch time, light to moderate west/southwest wind, 7 to 10 mm of precipitation expected.

SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1000 m, light to moderate southeast wind, 8 to 12 mm of precipitation expected.

MONDAY: Overcast, freezing level beginning around 1100 m rising to about 1400 m in the afternoon, light to moderate southeast wind, 15 to 25 mm of precipitation.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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