Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Dec 26, 2017 - 3:51 PM

Valid until

Dec 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Little change with no significant snow in the forecast. Wind slabs lingering in exposed terrain remain the main concern.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - December 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - December 28, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs are likely lingering around ridge crests and exposed gullies after a strong bout of outflow winds. Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to a buried crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.
  • Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. A skier remotely triggered a large wind slab (size 2) near the Shames area on Sunday. The avalanche started on a steep south-facing rocky ridgetop at 1400 m.

Snowpack Summary

Strong outflow winds dramatically affected the surface snow over the past week, scouring some slopes down to an old crust and forming hard deposits in many other areas. Sheltered areas may still have 20-40 cm of powder from previous storms, but winds have come from a variety of directions and affected much of the terrain. Wind slabs rest on a variety of old surfaces including a thick melt-freeze crust. In some sheltered locations, soft feathery surface hoar crystals may sit above the crust.

The snowpack is reported to be generally strong below this crust, with the possible exception of areas around Stewart and northern parts of the region where the late October crust can be found deep in the snowpack. This deep crust has been been associated with weak sugary snow and could possible be triggered in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, light west winds, treeline temperatures around -15 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light west winds, treeline temperatures around -15 C.

FRIDAY: Light flurries with trace accumulations, light southwest winds, treeline temperatures around -15 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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