Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Dec 22, 2017 - 4:28 PM

Valid until

Dec 23, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Deep powder offers excellent riding in many areas, but there's a highly variable weak layer that warrants cautious terrain choices. Read this forecasters' blog for more details.

Regular season
Friday - December 22, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - December 23, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - December 24, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Low density snow and sustained alpine winds are a recipe for touchy wind slabs in exposed terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

A variable weak layer buried approximately 60 cm below the surface will likely remain sensitive to human-triggered avalanches in areas with stiffer snow. Sheltered areas with steep, unsupported terrain are the most likely places to be caught.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle was observed in alpine terrain on Friday with storm slabs up to size 2 (typically 20-40 cm deep). Explosive avalanche control triggered similar sized avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Around 50 to 80 cm recent new snow now rests on a variety of old surfaces. These old surfaces include crusts on south through west facing slopes, wind-scoured slopes and, in sheltered terrain at and below treeline, large feathery surface hoar crystals. Lower in the snowpack, you should be able to find a hard crust that was buried near the end of November. This crust is approximately 30 cm thick and extends from 1600 m to mountain top on all aspects. Average snowpack depths at treeline in the region range from 100 to 140 cm.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Dry and sunny, moderate northwest winds, temperatures around -15 C.

SUNDAY: Sunny with increasing clouds, light northwest winds, temperatures around -15 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest winds, temperatures around -18 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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