Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 22, 2017 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Dec 23, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Winds have redistributed the recent storm snow at upper treeline and alpine elevations. Watch for areas of wind-affected, "pillowy" or hollow drum-like sounding snow.

Regular season
Friday - December 22, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 23, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 24, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent storm snow has been redistributed by northerly wind and lies on a widespread melt-freeze crust. More snow and strong outflow winds are expected for Sunday which may build fresh slabs in areas that are not normally loaded by wind.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in down wind (lee) areas. Wind loading may create pockets of wind slab.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or shooting cracks.

Avalanche Summary

There were no new reports of avalanche activity on Thursday. However, on Wednesday a natural Size 2 slab avalanche was reported on a southeast aspect at 1400 m on the North Shore mountains, as well as a Size 1 on a west aspect at 1200 m, although ski cutting produced no results. Also on Wednesday evidence of a natural cycle which likely occurred during or immediately after the storm was reported in higher alpine terrain in the northern part of the region.

On Tuesday a few natural, loose dry avalanches were observed in the recent storm snow. Ski cutting also produced storm slab and loose dry avalanches to Size 1 running far on the December 18th crust. And explosive control work produced storm slab avalanches up to Size 1.5 failing on the December 18th crust.

Snowpack Summary

Northerly winds have redistributed the recent storm snow scouring windward, northwesterly slopes and loading leeward southerly slopes in the alpine and exposed treeline areas. A thin sun crust can also be found on solar aspects. Approximately 20-30 cm of storm snow sits on top of the most recent December 18th melt-freeze crust. Below this crusts lies 20 cm of well settled snow above the December 16th crust. Below this second crust the snowpack is well settled to ground. Snowpack depths are about 135 cm at 1100 m elevation, with many early season hazards present at lower elevations.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light from the northeast. Temperature -6. Freezing level surface.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind light from the south. Temperature -4. Freezing level surface. Strong outflow winds near coastal valleys.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind moderate from the northwest. Temperature -3. Freezing level surface.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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