Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Dec 19, 2017 - 4:45 PM

Valid until

Dec 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mbender

Expect the recent storm slab to become more reactive as it continues to settle and consolidate.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent west and northwest winds have created wind slabs in the lee of terrain features

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Expect the new snow to be become more reactive as it settles into a slab especially in sheltered areas at and below tree line where it may be sitting on a layer of feathery surface hoar crystals.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, shooting cracks, or signs of recent natural avalanches.
  • Buried surface hoar may be preserved on open slopes and convex rolls at and below tree line
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from the past 2 days include several explosives controlled and natural storm snow avalanches to size 2.5 in the alpine and tree line. There have also been a few reports of skier accidental and remote (triggered from a distance) avalanches to size 1.5 and 2 at and below tree line. This avalanche activity is failing in the recent storm snow. As snow accumulates and settles in the coming days expect to see in human triggered avalanche activity continue even as the latest forecast storm ends.

Snowpack Summary

30-50cm of new snow accumulating over the past 5 days sits on a wide variety of old surfaces including large surface hoar (weak, feather-like crystals), hard crusts formed by sun or wind, and sugary facets. As the snow load builds and slab properties develop, it will be important to monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surfaces. Most concerning would be areas that have seen previous surface hoar development, such as sheltered areas at and below tree line and sheltered northerly aspects in the alpine. Additionally, any steep solar aspects where the surface hoar may be sitting on sun crust should be considered areas where this weak layer may be very likely to trigger.

A crust which was formed by rain in late November is a major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 50-80cm at tree line elevations. Snowpack tests suggest the snow above is currently bonding well to it.

Snowpack depth decreases rapidly below tree line. Look out for early season hazards such as rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Periods of snow in the southern portion of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, accumulations 5-10cm / wind light to moderate northwest / alpine temperatures -11

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries / wind moderate northwest / alpine temperature -9 

FRIDAY: Mainly sunny / wind moderate north / alpine temperature -15

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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