Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Dec 18, 2017 - 4:44 PM

Valid until

Dec 19, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mgrist

Danger will increase throughout the day with a powerful storm forecast for the south (Coquihalla-Manning). Danger ratings in the north (Duffey Lake zone) will be at least one step lower due to lower snowfall amounts.

Regular season
Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Tuesday's storm has the potential to deliver heavy snowfall amounts to the south of the region. Stick to terrain with no consequence or overhead hazard.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low / no consequence.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Summary

No new reported; however, a natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred in the south of the region with Sunday night's storm. 

Snowpack Summary

The south of the region saw significantly more snow (30-40cm) from Sunday night's storm compared to the north of the region, which received 10-15cm. This new snow sits on crusts of variable thickness that formed on almost all aspects in early December. On steep southerly aspects the crust is supportive, whereas on northerly aspects the crust is quite thin and variable.

Moderate to strong winds have redistributed the snow, creating wind slabs on down wind (lee) features near ridge crests.

Lower down, the snowpack is well settled and has not been showing any signs of activity on the late November rain crust.

Treeline snow depths are approximately 1.2 m throughout the region.

Weather Forecast

Heavy snowfall is forecast in the south (Coquihalla), whereas only 10cm is expected in the north (Duffey Lake area).

TUESDAY: Snow. 10-15cm overnight and another 15-20cm accumulation throughout the day in the south (Coquihalla-Manning). Northern areas will only see 10cm total. Ridge wind moderate from the north east. Temperature near -4. Freezing level 500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Ridge wind moderate northerly. Freezing level at the surface.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Ridge wind moderate from the north west. Temperature near -3. Freezing level 400 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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