Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 14, 2017 - 3:53 PM

Valid until

Dec 15, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Cooler temperatures and snow are forecasted for Friday but don't expect to see appreciable amounts until later in the weekend.  That said, if the main system arrives sooner than forecasted, then avalanche hazard will also increase sooner.

Regular season
Friday - December 15, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 16, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 17, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed during the past week however, some rather large blocks of snow were observed to topple over from the base of a steep, rocky outcrop depositing a 10 m wide debris pile across a snowshoe trail on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

A spring-like, melt-freeze crust has formed on all aspects although feathery, surface hoar and sugary, faceted snow may still exist in shaded areas on north aspects at upper elevations. Below the snow surface, the upper snowpack is well-settled an sits on the late-November rain crust. This crust is now buried approximately 120 cm at 1300m elevation, and is up to 30 cm thick. Beneath the crust, the lower snowpack is wet to ground. Below treeline the snow pack is thin and there are many early season hazards. Snowpack depths range from 30 cm at 800 m elevation to 180 cm at 1220 m.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5 cm. Ridge wind light from the west. Temperature +1. Freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, flurries. Accumulation trace. Ridge wind light from the northwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 800 m.

SUNDAY: Snow. Accumulation 15-20 cm. Ridge wind moderate from the southwest. Temperature +1. Freezing level 800 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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