Avalanche Forecast
Northwest Coastal
Forecast freezing levels are highly uncertain for Sunday night and Monday; however, warming is expected to drive the avalanche danger. Use extra caution on sun-exposed slopes and limit your exposure to large overhead terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.
- Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
At elevations where Sunday night's precipitation falls as snow, dense storm slabs can be expected. Watch for triggering in higher elevation, wind-exposed terrain.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Use extra caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow will form touchy slabs.
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
Avalanche Problem 3: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Weak layers buried near the base of the snowpack can't be dismissed while new snow or rain load the surface. I'd limit my exposure to large overhead slopes, especially when the sun makes an appearance on Monday.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Take extra caution around areas with a thin or variable snowpack.
- Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
Avalanche Summary
Recent rain, warm temperatures and sunshine initiated numerous loose wet avalanches to Size 1.5 throughout the region. Recent warming and solar radiation also triggered a few deep persistent slabs to size 3 out of steep south facing alpine terrain in the Skeena corridor west of Terrace. Basal facets were thought to be the culprit in these events. Finally, warming was also responsible for a size 2.5 wet slab avalanche that was reported to have failed in the Bear Pass area on Saturday. With precipitation forecast for Sunday night and continued warming on Monday, more loose wet avalanche activity is expected, especially in steep, sun-exposed terrain where cold snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time. With the forecast warm weather, I'd also consider the possibility of deeper, more destructive slab avalanches.
Avalanche and snowpack data is extremely sparse at this time. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)
Snowpack Summary
On Friday and Saturday night about 10mm total precipitation fell in the Skeena corridor. Given the mild temperatures, I suspect most of that precipitation fell as rain. At alpine elevations snow likely fell and moderate to strong winds are expected to have formed wind slabs in lee terrain. In the Bear Pass area where temperatures were cooler, around 30cm of new snow fell. These accumulations overlie melt freeze crusts and possibly surface hoar.
About 70-100cm below the surface you'll likely find a 5-10 cm thick crust which was buried on November 23. Another layer of surface hoar (November 11) continues to be observed down approximately 140 cm in the Bear Pass area, showing some signs of improved bonding. The widespread crust/facet interface that was buried at the end of October can now be found 90-160 cm deep.
Weather Forecast
Sunday night: 5-25mm of precipitation / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at about 2000m
Monday: Mainly clear / Moderate to strong southerly winds / Freezing level at about 2000m
Tuesday: 2-5cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1700m
Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 2300m
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With precipitation forecast for Sunday night (and then sun on Monday), I would expect loose wet avalanches to occur, especially in steep, sun-exposed terrain where dry snow is exposed to solar radiation for the first time