Avalanche Forecast

Cariboos

Date issued

Dec 7, 2017 - 3:31 PM

Valid until

Dec 8, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Seek the shade for the best and safest riding.

Regular season
Thursday - December 7, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - December 8, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 9, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Intense warmth at alpine and treeline elevations is expected to trigger avalanches on steep, sunny slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Intense warming could wake up deeply buried weak layers. Limited field information is increasing our uncertainty, so a conservative approach makes sense.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Minimize exposure to steep slopes on warm or sunny days.
  • Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Avalanche Summary

Some small loose natural avalanches were reported on Wednesday in the south of the region with the start of the warming. Overall, we have very limited data. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Intense warming is melting upper snowpack layers, particularly on steep sunny slopes. Warming also has the potential to wake up more deeply buried weak layers which formed during November's rainfall. We have limited information about the nature of these buried crusts, but tests in the south of the region suggest they are bonding reasonably well there.

Below treeline, the snowpack is shallow--look out for early season hazards like open creeks and tree stumps.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Sunny with valley cloud. Light wind. Freezing level near 3300 m with a colder air layer in the valleys.

SATURDAY: Sunny with valley cloud. Light wind. Freezing level near 3000 m with a colder air layer in the valleys.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, with a few flurries possible. Moderate to strong south-west winds. Freezing level near 2500 m.

More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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