Avalanche Forecast

South Coast

Date issued

Dec 6, 2017 - 3:09 PM

Valid until

Dec 7, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

shorton

Dial back your terrain choices when the snow gets moist or mushy and avoid cliffs, gullies, and steep slopes with trees.

Regular season
Thursday - December 7, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - December 8, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 9, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Conditions will be more like spring than winter this week. Surface snow layers will weaken when hit by the sun. Minimize your exposure to terrain traps - even small sluffs can push you into dangerous terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use extra caution on sunny slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Slab avalanches are possible in steep and/or exposed terrain at the highest elevations. Be careful around broad open slopes and steep terrain, especially where you can feel a buried crust with your ski pole.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.

Avalanche Summary

Several small wet loose avalanches have been reported in steep terrain with the warming temperatures over the past few days. On Sunday, a size 1.5 natural wind slab avalanche was reported on a north-facing slope at 1500 m near Sky Pilot Mountain.

Snowpack Summary

Warm weather is melting the snow surface all the way to the top of the highest mountains. Crusts may form overnight, but will melt quickly in the morning. The 80-100 cm of storm snow that fell last week is rapidly settling and bonding to a buried crust. Travel has improved below treeline, but there are still open creeks, alder, and other early season hazards. Expect snow depths around 200 cm at 1200 m and 60 cm at 800 m.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Sunny, light wind, freezing level up to 3400 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light wind, freezing level around 3000 m.

SATURDAY: Increasing cloud, moderate southwest wind, freezing level around 2700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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