Avalanche Forecast

North Columbia

Date issued

Nov 30, 2017 - 4:06 PM

Valid until

Dec 1, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jlammers

This forecast is based on very few field observations and a high level of uncertainty exists. A conservative approach to terrain selection is critical until more snowpack data becomes available.

Regular season
Friday - December 1, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 2, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 3, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent wind and snowfall has likely formed reactive new storm slabs. Storm slabs may be touchier in heavily wind-exposed terrain, or in areas where the new snow has a weak bond with underlying crusts.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. A natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred on Thursday in response to recent wind and snowfall. The potential for human triggering of these storm slabs is expected to continue into the weekend.

We currently have very limited observations in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

Between 30 and 45cm of new snow has fallen in the past few days. I'd expect reactive storm slabs to exist in wind-exposed terrain or in places where the recent storm snow has a weak bond with a series of crusts which formed in late November which lie up to 60cm below the surface.

Another feature in the snowpack is a 3-5 cm thick crust which was formed around Halloween and can be found approximately 100cm down at treeline elevations. This layer is generally stubborn to trigger; however, I'd be increasingly cautious of it in the north of the region where it may remain reactive.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly with elevation. Recent reports suggest the average depth is 200+cm in the alpine, 100-150cm at treeline, and decreasing rapidly below treeline where the primary hazards are rocks, stumps, and open creeks.

We currently have very limited snowpack observations within this region and it is critical to supplement this information with your own observations.

Weather Forecast

Friday: 5-10cm of new snow / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 900m

Saturday: Light flurries / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at 400m

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light and variable winds / Freezing level at valley bottom with alpine temperatures dropping to about -11

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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