Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Nov 29, 2017 - 4:45 PM

Valid until

Nov 30, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow is being redistributed by wind onto northeasterly and easterly slopes. Watch for scoured slopes on the windward side and "chalky" looking wind-deposited snow in lee areas. These wind slabs may be easily triggered by a skier or rider.

Regular season
Thursday - November 30, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - December 1, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 2, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Winds have redistributed the new snow forming windslabs 20 to 40 cm thick on lee slopes above 1600 m.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful in wind loaded areas especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

With a return to more winter-like temperatures the snow surface has refrozen since last week's rain and no recent avalanche activity has been reported. As wind continues to redistribute the new snow however, expect to find wind slabs building in lee areas above 1600 m. In the high alpine, winds have scoured southwest facing slopes, loading northerly aspects. Watch for pillowy snow and signs of instability like hollow, drum-like sounds or shooting cracks. Many areas below treeline are below threshold depths for avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

At upper elevations  about 20-40 cm of snow has fallen on the crust that formed after last week's rain and warm weather and is being redistributed by wind above 1600 m. Reports from the area indicate that the crust is supportive, up to 10 cm thick and extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy. Moderate west wind. Alpine temperature -6, Freezing level 1000 m.

FRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate west wind. Alpine temperature -8. Freezing level 800 m.

SATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5cm. Moderate west wind. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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