Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Nov 28, 2017 - 4:08 PM

Valid until

Nov 29, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Light snow and wind in the forecast means the potential for pockets of wind slab to develop in lee areas and near ridgelines.  Watch for signs of wind deposited snow.

Regular season
Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - November 29, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - November 30, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Be cautious in lee and cross loaded areas where wind loading may have created wind slabs.  Watch for signs of wind affected, "pillowy" snow.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

Large loose, wet avalanches were reported during last week's rain event. With a return to more winter-like temperatures and freezing levels the snow surface has since refrozen and no new avalanche activity has been reported. Wind affect in the recent snow has been noted on northeast through south aspects in the alpine. As wind continues to redistribute the new snow expect to find pockets of wind slab in lee areas.

Snowpack Summary

At upper elevations about 5-10 cm of snow has fallen on the crust that formed after last week's rain and warm weather. Reports from the area indicate that the crust is supportive, up to 10 cm thick and extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. Many areas below treeline are below threshold depths for avalanches.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1000 m

THURSDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm.  Moderate gusting to strong southwest wind.  Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1000 m

FRIDAY: Cloudy isolated flurries. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1100 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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