Avalanche Forecast

South Rockies

Date issued

Nov 27, 2017 - 4:57 PM

Valid until

Nov 28, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

With winter's return keep an eye out for new wind slabs and be extra cautious in thin snowpack areas where it may be possible to trigger a deeper layer in the snowpack. And if you do have any observations be sure to share them on the MIN.

Regular season
Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - November 29, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Watch for wind-transported, pillowy snow on leeward and cross-loaded slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. New snow and wind loading may have created wind slabs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are several crusts now buried within the snowpack. Be extra caution in thin snowpack areas where it may be possible to trigger these layers and assume that a release near the surface may also have the potential to step-down to a deeper layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports of avalanche activity in the region since last week's natural, wet cycle during the big rain event. To the north however, Kananaskis Country reports persistent slab activity to Size 2.5 initiating on layers at or near the base of the snowpack in the alpine and running to treeline. While natural avalanche activity is likely to taper off with a return to cooler temperatures and lowering freezing levels, new snow and wind are creating wind slabs in alpine lee areas. Once initiated, the possibility of a slab release stepping down to a deeper layer within the snowpack still exists.

Snowpack Summary

Sunday brought more rain and light snowfall amounts to upper elevations across the region. The southern part of the region received about 5 cm overnight while northern areas saw as much as 10-15 cm at 2200 m and above. While there is little information regarding snowpack structure, snowpack depths vary from 40-60 cm at 1800 m elevation to 80-100 cm near 2300m. Several crusts are expected to exist within the snowpack including the most recent rain crust which is now buried by 10-30 cm of new snow. Below this crust lies the Halloween crust as well as the early October rain crust at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Alpine temperature near -7. Freezing level 1100 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate west wind. Alpine temperature near -7. Freezing level 1000 m.

Thursday: Cloudy, isolated flurries. Moderate to strong west wind. Alpine temperature near -7. Freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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