Avalanche Forecast

Northwest Coastal

Date issued

Nov 26, 2017 - 5:02 PM

Valid until

Nov 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Avalanche danger is steadily increasing as snowfall and wind continue to load the snowpack. Each pulse of new snow and wind brings it closer to the tipping point.

Regular season
Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Touchy new storm slabs are building up at all elevations. Slab size and reactivity will increase with each new pulse of snowfall and wind. Storm slab releases may have potential to step down to a deeper weak layer to produce a very large avalanche.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Looking forward, high winds and snowfall rates are set to rapidly load the snowpack and establish very dangerous avalanche conditions for the next few days. Any travel in avalanche terrain will require very conservative routefinding and travel practices. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at treeline elevations average about 90-150 cm in the south of the region. Here, an elevation dependant 30-50 cm of new snow from recent and ongoing stormy weather now forms the upper snowpack. Variable winds over the course of this stormy period have progressively encouraged slab formation in the new snow, especially at higher elevations.

A thick rain crust that formed early last week exists below the new snow and has produced a wide range of results (from easy to hard) in snowpack tests. Below this crust, two weak layers are noted to have formed during the early season. (October 31 and November 11). The deeper late October layer has produced moderate to hard sudden collapse results in snowpack tests. Beneath it, the bottom 20 cm of the snowpack features loose, sugary crystals that have begun to show signs of improved bonding.

Looking further to the north of the region near Ningunsaw, recent reports describe a starkly different snowpack. Here, a possible 10-30 cm of recent storm snow may now overlie a thin lower snowpack composed mainly of weak, sugary snow. Snow depths in this part of the region are only beginning to approach threshold depths for avalanching.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Periods of snow bringing 15-25 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level to 1000 metres with alpine temperatures of around -3.

Tuesday: Periods of snow bringing 15-20 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level to about 800 metres with alpine temperatures around -5.

Wednesday: Heavy snowfall bringing 20-30 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures around -2.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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