Avalanche Forecast

South Coast Inland

Date issued

Nov 23, 2017 - 4:50 PM

Valid until

Nov 24, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

cgarritty

Limited field observations are contributing to low forecast confidence. Friday's rating is biased to the south of the region where new snow has been accumulating rapidly.

Regular season
Thursday - November 23, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - November 24, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - November 25, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Touchy new storm slabs have been forming on the surface as rain transitioned to snow over the course of the storm. The most recent and most rapid loading has occurred in the south of the region.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent snowfall mixed with wind loading has created storm slabs.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Continued potential for loose wet avalanches exists where the surface has been saturated with rain and at lower elevations where new snow is moist.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, however touchy new storm slabs have developed at upper elevations over the course of Thursday's continued stormy weather. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

Although recent heavy rain has saturated the upper snowpack throughout the region, a fresh cover of wind affected new snow has been forming storm slabs at all elevations in the south of the region. While limited field observations have led to uncertainty in the composition of the mid and lower snowpack, moist snow is expected to be dominant throughout the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Scattered flurries bringing about 5-10 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level to about 1300 metres with alpine temperatures of around -3 to -1.

Saturday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate southeast winds. Freezing level to 1600 metres with alpine temperatures of -2 to 0.

Sunday: 20-30 cm of new snow to upper elevations, with rain below about 1800 metres. Strong south winds. Freezing level to 2200 metres and alpine temperatures around -1 to +1.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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