Avalanche Forecast
South Rockies
If the rain-soaked snow freezes as expected through Friday and Saturday, avalanche hazard will follow a decreasing trend until the next storm on Sunday. Please treat this forecast as an initial assessment, as we have little information at this time.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- Start cautiously on small slopes before gradually working up to larger objectives.
Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Recent rain and warm temperatures may lead to ongoing loose wet avalanches, particularly if the snow surface has not hardened into a crust.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Start with lower angle slopes before gradually working up to steeper objectives.
- A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.
Avalanche Summary
There are few observers right now, but avalanches almost certainly ran during the onset of the rain on Wednesday. I suspect this activity will taper off with cooling temperatures on Friday and Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
Rain and warm weather have resulted in a widespread wet upper snowpack. The freezing level rose to approximately 2700 m on Wednesday and Thursday meaning very few places, if any, will have escaped the melt. The last 48 hours have seen the snowpack diminish by approximately 10 cm. Expect treeline snow depths of around 45 cm in the Elk Valley and more like 80 cm further south in the Flathead in sheltered areas. A crust that formed around Halloween has been reported within the snowpack that may lie around 40 cm below the surface.
Weather Forecast
Harmer (1870m):Temps between 2 and 4.5C over last 24 hours. HS decreased from 57 to 43cm. Winds 30-45 SE (prev SW)
Crowsnest Ck (1450m):H96W: 18mm; H24W: 12mm; TMax 9; TMin 4
S Racehorse Ck(1950m): H96W: 52mm; H24W: 32mm; TMax 7; TMin 3
Castle Mtn (1420m): H24W: 14.4mm rain; H48W: 40mm rain. TMin 6; TMax 8; Mod SW winds
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We know there's a crust buried approx. 40cm below the surface, but don't know much about how likely avalanches are on it. Once there's a new thick crust on the surface, this lower layer may become less of a problem. Until then, assume it's a player.