Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Apr 15, 2018 - 3:53 PM

Valid until

Apr 16, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

New snow and wind on Monday will create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers; especially in wind effected terrain.

Regular season
Sunday - April 15, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - April 16, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - April 17, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Snow and wind on Monday will create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution when transitioning into wind effected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking, or recent natural avalanching.
  • Use small slopes with low or no consequence to test the bond of the new snow.

Avalanche Problem 2: Loose Wet

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

When the sun comes out it will quickly weaken the new snow and cause loose wet avalanching on steep solar slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for signs that the snow is heating up such as pin-wheeling or the surface snow becoming moist.
  • Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating. Give them a wide berth both from above and below.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet avalanches up to size 2.5 which were triggered by cornice falls were reported near Fernie on Sunday. Storm slab avalanche activity will likely increase with the forecast snow on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow and moderate winds have formed storm slabs reactive to human triggers. This storm snow overlies numerous crusts in the upper 100 cm of the snowpack.

The mid-pack is generally well settled and strong.

A layer of sugary facets around a crust can be found near the bottom of the snowpack which has been dormant for some time. Large triggers, such as a falling cornice, or a major warm-up to the snowpack could trigger this layer.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Snow, accumulation 10-20 cm. Moderate to strong easterly ridgetop winds. Alpine temperature -1. Freezing level around 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Snow, accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds. Alpine temperature -1. Freezing level around 1500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with sunny breaks. Light southwesterly ridgetop winds. Alpine temperature +1. Freezing level rising to around 1700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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