Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Apr 3, 2018 - 4:46 PM

Valid until

Apr 4, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

simonhorton

Watch for areas where the surface snow feels stiff or slabby, especially in open wind-affected terrain.

Regular season
Tuesday - April 3, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Wednesday - April 4, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - April 5, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Shifting winds have formed slabs on lee features on a variety of aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger slabs.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous small avalanches were reported in the top 10-20 cm of snow on Monday and Tuesday. They included size 1 slab avalanches in wind-affected terrain and loose dry avalanches in steep sheltered terrain. A few size 2 wind slabs were observed in alpine terrain after Sunday night's storm.

On Sunday, a size 2 wind slab avalanche was triggered with explosives on a north aspect at 2100 m. On Saturday, a large storm slab avalanche (size 2.5) was triggered on a treeline feature. See this MIN post for a photo and more details.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 15 cm of snow sits above a variety of crusts on all but high north aspects. Wind has formed isolated slabs in lee features, and in some cases snow may be poorly bonded to the crusts.

There are some reports of a surface hoar layer roughly 80 cm deep on north aspects at treeline, but no recent avalanche activity on this layer. A layer of sugary facets around a crust exists near the bottom of the snowpack, but this layer has been inactive for some time.

Cornices are large along ridgetops and were actively failing last week.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries, moderate west wind, freezing level up to 1400 m with alpine high temperatures near -4 C.

THURSDAY: Light flurries with 10-15 cm of low density snow, moderate west wind, freezing level up to 1000 m with alpine high temperatures near -7 C.

FRIDAY: Morning flurries then clearing in the afternoon, moderate west wind, freezing level up to 1500 m with alpine high temperatures near -2 C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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