Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Mar 31, 2018 - 3:41 PM

Valid until

Apr 1, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Watch for wind slabs in terrain features near ridges. Also be cautious of your overhead exposure, as cornice falls could trigger slab avalanches.

Regular season
Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 1, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - April 2, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs exist in exposed terrain features. Assess the snow for slab properties and the bond with underlying layers. Be particularly cautious when travelling on or below ridges, as cornices are weak and they could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Watch for wind slabs on all aspects due to variable wind directions.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, loose avalanches were reported from steep alpine terrain on easterly aspects.  One small slab avalanche was triggered by a cornice fall, also in steep alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may exist on all aspects at higher elevations from recent snowfall and variable wind directions.  Expect to find a melt-freeze crust on the surface on sunny aspects and all aspects below 1700 m. A surface hoar and crust layer is found around treeline at a depth of about 60 cm, with surface hoar on northerly aspects and the crust elsewhere. 

At ridgetop, cornices are large and have been failing the past few days.

Deeper in the snowpack, the late-November weak layer is composed of sugary facets around a crust, which is buried around 200 to 300 cm and is currently dormant.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm with possible localized higher amounts from convective flurries, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1000 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -12 C, freezing level 700 m.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy with light snowfall, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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