Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Mar 30, 2018 - 4:11 PM

Valid until

Mar 31, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Watch for wind slabs in exposed terrain features at higher elevations. Although a cool day is forecasted, assess snowpack warming on southerly aspects from the sun. Also watch your overhead exposure, as cornice falls could trigger slab avalanches.

Regular season
Saturday - March 31, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - April 1, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - April 2, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs exist in exposed terrain features. Assess the snow for slab properties and the bond with underlying layers. Be particularly cautious when travelling on or below ridges, as cornices are weak and they could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for wind slabs on all aspects due to variable wind directions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind-loaded snow.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices, which could trigger slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a few loose dry avalanches occurred in steep and rocky alpine terrain on sun-exposed aspects.

On Wednesday, large (size 2 to 3) wind slabs were observed in the region, being triggered naturally and by explosive control. They were generally on easterly aspects, 20 to 30 cm deep, and at treeline and alpine elevations.

Cornices have also been reactive this week, with numerous releases from natural and explosive triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Around 5 to 10 cm of snow fell on Friday.  Wind slabs may linger on all aspects at higher elevations, produced from the redistribution of last weekend’s storm snow with variable wind directions. This snow sits on a melt-freeze crust on sunny aspects and all aspects below 1600 m, as well as surface hoar on north aspects above 1600 m.  At ridgetop, cornices are large and have been failing in the past few days.  At low elevations, expect to find a surface crust or moist snow on southerly aspects.

Deeper in the snowpack, the late-November weak layer is composed of weak and sugary facets around a crust, which is buried around 200 to 300 cm and considered dormant.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny, light westerly winds, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with light afternoon snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1000 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with morning snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -12 C, freezing level 700 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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