Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Strong winds are driving the alpine danger to CONSIDERABLE. Watch for whumphing and cracking below your feet and continue to make observations while gaining elevation towards alpine terrain.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
- Avoid large slopes and convex features.
- Wind slabs may be more reactive where they sit on a buried crust or surface hoar interface
Avalanche Problem 2: Cornices
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large looming cornices exist across ridgelines. Cornices are unpredictable and demand respect. They're more likely to fail during wind events or if the sun comes out.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.
- Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger a slab from the slope below.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, numerous natural storm slab avalanches were reported from North aspects above 1700 m. I suspect with the strong winds and new on Saturday this problem may persist.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 20 cm of new snow will initially have a poor bond to the plethora of old snow surfaces including a melt-freeze crust on sunny aspects, surface hoar on north aspects above 1600 m and moist snow surfaces below 1600 m. Wind slabs are building on most aspects due to the changing winds and overhanging cornices exist along ridgelines.
Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December and late-November weak layers are composed of crusts and sugary facets, which are down 150-300 cm. These layers are currently dormant.
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Mainly cloudy. New snow 5-10 cm accompanied by strong southwest ridgetop winds. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1200 m.
Sunday: Mix of sun and clouds. Ridgetop wind strong from the West and freezing levels near 1400 m.
Monday: Cloudy with some sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ridgetop wind generally light with strong gusts from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -4 and freezing levels 1400 m.
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Changing winds from East-West continue to be strong, redistributing the recent storm snow onto most aspects. Wind slabs will likely be reactive to skier/rider triggers and loose dry avalanches may occur from steeper terrain features.