Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Mar 14, 2018 - 4:25 PM

Valid until

Mar 15, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

mconlan

Variable amounts of new snow are expected across the region, mostly at treeline and alpine elevations.  Treat the hazard as higher if local snow amounts are substantially more than forecasted.

Regular season
Wednesday - March 14, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Thursday - March 15, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - March 16, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Forecasted snowfall amounts are variable across the region. Assess the snow accumulation and treat the hazard as higher if local amounts exceed 20 cm.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow may form touchy slabs.
  • Keep an eye out for localized areas of enhanced snowfall, particularly on eastern slopes.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread loose wet avalanche activity to size 1.5 was observed on southerly slopes on Tuesday.  Loose wet avalanche activity is expected to reduce with the cooling temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will fall on a melt-freeze crust produced with the recent warm air temperatures, sun, and rain.  On shady aspects at high elevations, new snow may fall on lingering wind slabs in lee features and loose dry snow in sheltered features.

Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of crusts and sugary facets, which are down 200-300 cm. These layers have been dormant but may be awoken by a large trigger, such as a cornice fall.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, light northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1400 m.

FRIDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, light to moderate northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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