Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Mar 8, 2018 - 4:36 PM

Valid until

Mar 9, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jsmith

Fresh storm slabs are expected to be reactive to human triggers on Friday, especially in wind-affected terrain.

Regular season
Friday - March 9, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Saturday - March 10, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - March 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Fresh storm slabs are expected to be reactive to human triggers on Friday.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid terrain traps where small avalanches can have high consequence.
  • Use small slopes with low or no consequence to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Use caution when transitioning into wind effected terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work near Fernie on Wednesday produced small slab avalanches up to size 1.5. Failing cornices also triggered size 2 slab avalanches on northerly aspects. Thursday's storm is expected to create touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of new snow on Thursday is sitting on a sun crust on solar aspects.

In the upper to mid snowpack, a surface hoar layer buried mid-February is now 80 to 100 cm below the surface on sheltered northerly aspects.

Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of a combination of crusts and sugary facets which are down 200-300 cm.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: 10-15 cm new snow / Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: 5-15 cm of new snow / Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rising to around 1800 m.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rising to around 2000 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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