Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Feb 23, 2018 - 3:56 PM

Valid until

Feb 24, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

pgoddard

Use caution as you transition into wind-affected or sun-affected terrain.

Regular season
Friday - February 23, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - February 24, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - February 25, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Wind slabs can be found on many slopes at treeline and above.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead hazard from cornices.
  • Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.

Avalanche Summary

Few avalanches have been observed recently. A few size 1.5 wind slabs were observed on south to east aspects on Thursday. They are expected to have failed naturally earlier this week. If the sun is shining, avoid exposure to steep solar aspects where loose wet avalanche activity is possible.

Snowpack Summary

You are likely to find variable surfaces in open terrain after recent strong winds took out their fury on the upper snowpack. Fragile cornices and hard and soft wind slabs can be found on many alpine and treeline slopes. Ongoing cold temperatures are helping to break down and soften these.

A crust/surface hoar interface is about 40-60 cm down, but is spotty in distribution. In sheltered areas where the surface hoar exists, it is reactive in snowpack tests. Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December weak layer sits about 160-200 cm deep. This consists of a crust, facets or surface hoar. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer could be awoken from a thin-spot trigger point, or with a very large load.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, with a few flurries possible. Freezing level at valley floor. Light to moderate westerly winds.

SUNDAY: 5-10 cm snow. Freezing level near 500 m. Light to moderate south-westerly winds.

MONDAY: Mainly sunny. Freezing level near 700 m. Light to moderate south-westerly winds.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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