Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Recent snow and strong winds have produced touchy wind slabs. Watch for signs of avalanche activity and locally unstable snow, such as whumpfing and shooting cracks.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Choose shallow-angled and sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
- If triggered, the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several weak layers are lurking in our snowpack. If triggered, they could propagate far, producing avalanches with high consequences. Watch out for thin spots in the snowpack, where it is more likely to trigger them.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avalanches could run full-path: avoid runout zones of paths with large cornices or on solar aspects.
- Be aware of the potential for wide propagation.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous large (size 2 to 2.5) slab avalanches were triggered naturally on Sunday at treeline and alpine elevations. The slabs were 20 to 40 cm deep on north to northeast aspects.
Avalanche activity may slow down with a period of cold, clear weather that is expected to persist well into the week. However, the sun is packing more of a punch as the days get longer and it will warm the snow surface on solar aspects under clear skies. Watch out on steep sunny slopes due to the sun’s influence, lee features for reactive wind slabs, and be extra cautious near thin spots and shallow snow pack areas where triggering a deeper weak layer is more likely. There is a lower probability of triggering a deeper layer than in previous weeks, but the consequence would be very high if one was triggered.
Snowpack Summary
Around 50-80 cm of recent snow with strong winds have created wind slabs in direct lee features. This overlies a surface hoar layer and a melt-freeze crust buried mid-February up to 1800 m, and old wind slabs and a sun crust at higher elevations.
Deeper in the snowpack, a widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar is 120-160 cm deep. Also, a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late November is near the base of the snowpack. If triggered, they could produce large, destructive avalanches with high consequences.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny with afternoon clouds, light westerly winds, alpine temperature rising to -15 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate westerly winds, alpine temperature near -13 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, light easterly winds, alpine temperature -12 C, freezing level below valley bottom.
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Recent storm snow fell with strong winds that have produced wind slabs in lee features. Be cautious of overhead exposure on solar aspects when the sun is out.