Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Heavy snowfall and strong wind are forecasted for Wednesday night into Thursday. Choose conservative, well-supported terrain and avoid overhead hazards, such as large slopes and cornices. Recent large, avalanches have run long distances
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large avalanches have been running on deep weak layers. Wind loading, fragile cornices, and smaller avalanches are all possible triggers, as well as thin or rocky snowpack areas where human triggering may also be possible.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday a snow cat remotely (from a distance) triggered a size 3-3.5 persistent slab avalanche that stepped down from 80-250 cm and ran to ground in the lower start zone on a south aspect at 2100 m. Explosive control work also produced cornice releases up to size 2.5, but failed to produce any slab results on the slopes below.
Monday natural wind slab activity up to size 1.5 was reported on steep, north-east facing features. Ski cuts and explosive control work produced several storm slab results (size 1.5-2) on north-east through south-east aspects between 1400-1600 m where the late January crust is present.
On Saturday the east facing Mt. Corrigan slidepath produced a very large, natural avalanche. The avalanche is estimated to be a size 4.0, and it took out mature timber in the path as it overran the Flathead FSR south of Corbin.
Also on Saturday, several 20-50 cm thick storm slabs were triggered with explosives at treeline elevations. A few natural cornice falls occurred on north and east aspect, one triggering a size 2 storm slab on the slope below.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storm snow covers two crusts that formed late January and early February and are now buried 20-40 cm below the surface at elevations below 1700 m in the Fernie area. At higher elevations and in exposed areas at treeline winds have formed reactive wind slabs.
For the past month there has been regular avalanche activity on multiple weak layers in the mid and lower snowpack. A layer buried mid-January is composed of surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) and a sun crust on solar aspects and is 60-80 cm deep. Another surface hoar layer from early-January is 90-110 cm deep. A widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar is 120-160 cm deep. Finally, a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late-November is near the base of the snowpack.
The bottom line is the snowpack structure is weak. Human triggering is most likely on the shallower weak layers, however a release near the surface also has the potential to step down to deeper layers and become a much larger avalanche.
Weather Forecast
TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -6. Freezing level valley bottom.
THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 15-20 cm. Ridge wind light, east. Temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, northeast. Temperature -10. Freezing level valley bottom.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Ridge wind light, west. Temperature -8. Freezing level valley bottom.
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Significant new snow and strong wind will add to recently formed storm slabs that are sensitive to human triggering. Between 1400-1600 m elevation these slabs overlie a recent melt-freeze crust and may be especially touchy.