Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Another pulse of snow and wind Sunday night will allow dangerous conditions to persist at higher elevations. Stick to small supported terrain features and avoid overhead hazards like cornices.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
- Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.
Avalanche Problem 2: Deep Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large avalanches have been running on deep weak layers. Wind loading, fragile cornices, and smaller avalanches are all possible triggers.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.
- Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
- Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday the east facing Mt. Corrigan slidepath produced a very large natural avalanche. The avalanche is estimated to be a size 4.0, and it took out mature timber in the path as it overran the Flathead FSR south of Corbin. Photos available here.
Also on Saturday, several 20-50 cm thick storm slabs were triggered with explosives at treeline elevations. A few natural cornice falls occurred on north and east aspect, one triggering a size 2 storm slab on the slope below.
On Monday and Tuesday, many large (size 2-3) avalanches were triggered naturally and with explosives. Most of the natural avalanches were triggered by cornices falling and releasing slabs on the December and November layers, producing 150-250 cm thick crowns.
Snowpack Summary
Surface snow conditions are highly variable depending on the position of the Arctic front. The Fernie area experienced warm temperatures Saturday morning followed by a sudden drop to frigid temperatures in the afternoon. The results was a new surface crust below 1800 m. Areas closer to the divide likely stayed cold with low density snow. Higher elevations throughout the region stayed cold and windy, allowing the growth of touchy wind slabs and cornices.
For the past month there has been regular avalanche activity on multiple deep weak layers. A layer buried mid-January is composed of surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) and a sun crust on solar aspects and is 60-80 cm deep. Another surface hoar layer from early-January is 90-110 cm deep. A widespread weak layer from mid-December composed of facets, crusts, and surface hoar is 120-160 cm deep. Finally, a rain crust with sugary facets buried in late-November is near the base of the snowpack.
The bottom line is the snowpack structure is weak. Human triggering is most likely on the shallower weak layers, but any avalanche has the potential to step down to deeper layers and become much larger.
Weather Forecast
A modified Arctic air mass is expected to push back into the Lizard range Sunday night which should shake up the snow globe and keep temperatures cool. A drying trend takes hold on Tuesday that is expected to persist through Wednesday before the promise of yet another storm on Thursday. Stay tuned for more details.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, winds out of the northwest switching to northeast, 10 to 15 cm of snow.
MONDAY: Overcast, with a chance for some clearing late in the day, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate west winds, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.
TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover initially, clearing throughout the day, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable winds at treeline, moderate west wind at ridge top, no significant snowfall expected.
WEDNESDAY: Clear skies in the morning, cloud cover steadily increasing though the day, freezing level at valley bottom, strong west wind, no snow expected until Wednesday night.
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Continued snow and wind Sunday night should allow storm slabs to remain sensitive to human triggering Monday. Weather forecasts are handling the situation poorly, so some areas may have extra thick and touchy slabs.