Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Strong winds and significant snowfall forecasted for Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase avalanche hazard. Moderate terrain with no overhead hazard is a good choice.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Several weak layers of concern are buried within the snowpack and have the potential to produce large avalanches. Conservative terrain with moderate-angled, supported slopes are good choices.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or shooting cracks.
- Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering a deeper weak layer is more likely.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Monday included seven deep persistent slabs that were released with small explosives in the alpine in the Fernie area. Sizes ranged from 2.5-3, crown depths averaged about 200 cm and all results indicated the deeply buried late-November crust as the failure plane. These results demonstrate the need for ongoing vigilance with regard to overhead hazards and the ongoing potential for deep, destructive avalanches to occur especially in steep rocky start zones.
Saturday's reports showed explosives control in the Fernie area producing numerous storm slabs from Size 1.5-2.5. One skier triggered Size 2 was also recorded. This activity was observed above 1700 m on all but southwest aspects. Two observations of naturally triggered persistent slabs (Size 2 and Size 3) in the Fernie were also reported.
Reports from Friday included both natural and explosives triggered storm slabs from Size 1.5-3 in the Fernie area. The Size 3 was a natural, cornice-triggered slide that failed to step down to any deeper persistent weakness. All of these occurrences were focused on north to east aspects and slab depths ranged from 20-40 cm.
Snowpack Summary
About 40-60 cm of storm snow now covers a layer of feathery surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects that was buried mid-January.
A thin rain crust may be present about 15cm below the snow surface at 1800 m and lower. This crust likely forms the new snow interface at lower elevations.
Beneath the mid-January interface lie a number of very concerning buried weak layers. A layer of surface hoar from early-January is around 80 cm below the surface and the unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 120 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers have produced recent large, destructive avalanches and remain a concern.
Weather Forecast
TONIGHT: Snow. Accumulation 15-25 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature -4. Freezing level valley bottom.
WEDNESDAY: Snow. Accumulation 10-15 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.
THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 5 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -4. Freezing level 1000 m.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light, west. Temperature -3. Freezing level valley bottom.
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New snow and strong southwest winds are driving slab formation at higher elevations. In sheltered areas at treeline and below these slabs may be especially touchy where surface hoar has been buried.