Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Storm slab problems vary by elevation band. Wind loading patterns are your guide to avoiding slabs at higher elevations. Further down, carefully manage steep, sheltered slopes that may harbour surface hoar.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- If triggered, storm slabs may step down to deeper layers and result in large avalanches.
- Southwest winds will likely form thicker, more sensitive slabs on northeast aspects.
- Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable snowpack.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Large avalanches were recently triggered on a number of buried weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and shallow slope angles. Stress on these weak layers will increase as wind continues to load lee areas this weekend.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid lingering or regrouping in runout zones.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Friday included both natural and explosives triggered storm slabs from Size 1.5-3 in the Fernie area. The Size 3 was a natural, cornice-triggered slide that failed to step down to any deeper persistent weakness. All of these occurrences were focused on north to east aspects and slab depths ranged from 20-40 cm.
Thursday's reports included a few natural storm slab releases to Size 2 from steep alpine terrain in the Fernie area, as well as loose wet releases to Size 1 with ski cutting below treeline. Explosives control targeting persistent slabs that haven't already slid was notably unsuccessful. Large explosive triggers only managed to release storm slabs to Size 2.
With that said, more active persistent slab conditions are not yet a distant memory. Last week, large avalanches ran on multiple persistent weak layers, even in fairly dense trees and low angle slopes. Activity has gradually tapered off, but it would be wise to expect that the potential for human triggering remains.
Snowpack Summary
About 40 cm of new snow has buried a new layer of feathery surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects. Moderate to strong winds have been encouraging slab formation over this interface at higher elevations and continuously loading loose snow into deeper slabs in lee areas. The winds have also been also building up cornices along ridges. A thin rain crust may be present about 15cm below the snow surface at 1800 m and lower. This crust likely forms the new snow interface at lower elevations.
Beneath the new snow, a number of buried weak layers have been very concerning over the past week, and appear to be gaining strength very slowly. The early January surface hoar layer is around 60 cm below the surface and the unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 100 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers were reactive and produced large, destructive avalanches in the last couple of weeks.
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow, increasing overnight. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures around -6.
Monday: Mainly cloudy with continuing isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -7.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level near valley bottom with alpine high temperatures of -8.
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Sustained southwest winds are driving slab formation at higher elevations. Avoid the trap of lowering your guard at lower elevations - especially in openings exposed to wind. Slabs that form here may overlie a touchy layer of surface hoar.