Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain. Large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Touchy weak layers are making for volatile avalanche conditions. Large avalanches are failing naturally and with very easy (even remote) triggers.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended with current conditions.
Avalanche Summary
A natural avalanche cycle was observed from the air on Tuesday. It was described as widespread in the Lizard Range, with numerous size 3-3.5 avalanches starting in the alpine and running to near valley floor, and size 2 avalanches at and below treeline. Operators also reported numerous large human, vehicle and remote-triggered avalanches. Expect continuing avalanche activity on Wednesday. The natural cycle will probably slow a little as temperatures cool, but as long as its snowing and blowing, avalanche activity will be likely to continue.
On Monday, a skier-triggered size 2 avalanche was reported near McDermott Cabin at around 1800 m.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack reached its tipping point on Tuesday as warming and precipitation combined to overload persistent weak layers in the snowpack and create a large natural avalanche cycle.
A volatile weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below. Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets are also being stressed. Avalanches failing on these layers are large and destructive.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -5.
THURSDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -7.
FRIDAY: Strong south-westerly winds. Possible flurries. Alpine temperature near -5
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Recent snow and warming have created widespread storm slabs. If triggered, these could step down to a persistent weak layer and create a surprisingly large avalanche.