Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
We're into a tricky period as a critical amount of storm snow settles (into a slab) and sits on a buried weak layer. Keep your terrain choices on the conservative side until conditions stabilize.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
- Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Moderate winds have created fresh wind slabs in the alpine.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- If triggered, the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, a machine triggered Size 1.5 persistent slab avalanche was reported running on the mid December surface hoar layer, down 35 cm at that location (1700m).
On Sunday we had reports of small features being reactive to sled cutting. See here for the MIN report - great information from a low-consequence slope.
On Sunday, an explosives-triggered Size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a south east aspect at 1700m near Fernie, running on the mid-December surface hoar layer (down 65cm in that location).
Snowpack Summary
At the end of last week, 20-35 cm of storm snow fell on top of 25 cm of previous very low density storm snow. Winds (at times strong from the south west) have modified the snow pack, creating an "upside-down" storm slab layer with stiffer snow on top of softer snow.
This upside-down storm snow layer overlies roughly 50 cm of old storm snow from last week that formed into stiff wind slabs in exposed terrain near ridge top, but remains low density in sheltered areas.
The mid-December layer is now buried 40-60 cm below the surface. The layer includes crusts on south and west facing slopes and feathery surface hoar in sheltered areas at and below treeline, and has been producing moderate, sudden results in recent snowpack tests.
The lower snowpack is generally well settled with a thick prominent crust that was buried near the end of November.
Weather Forecast
Dry with gradually warming alpine temperatures during the week. Cold in the valley bottoms.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light west. Alpine temperature -8. Freezing level surface.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Ridge wind light southwest. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level surface.
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light southwest. Alpine temperature -3. Freezing level surface.
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A weak layer composed of surface hoar and/or crusts is buried 60-80 cm below the surface. This layer continues to be very reactive to human triggers and may not improve anytime soon.