Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
We're into a tricky period as a critical amount of storm snow settles (into a slab) and sits on a buried weak layer. Keep your terrain choices on the conservative side until conditions stabilize.
Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Choose conservative lines with low consequence and avoid overhead hazard.
- Be aware of the potential for reactive storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A weak layer composed of surface hoar and/or crusts is buried 60-80 cm below the surface.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, an explosives-triggered Size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a south east aspect at 1700m near Fernie, running on the mid-December surface hoar layer (down 65cm in that location).
A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday into Saturday producing storm slab avalanches to Size 2 on north through south easterly aspects between 1700 m and 2100 m.
A surprising amount of natural avalanche activity was also reported below treeline on Saturday - see here for the MIN report and details.
On Thursday, natural and skier triggered storm slab releases up to size 1.5 were reported including a remote-triggered Size 1.5 slab on an open, rock slope on a north west aspect below treeline. Whumpfing and cracking in rocky areas was also reported on Thursday. See the report on the Mountain Information Network (MIN) here.
Snowpack Summary
On Friday into Saturday, 20-35 cm of storm snow fell on top of 25 cm of previous very low density storm snow. Winds (at times strong from the south west) have modified the snow pack, creating an "upside-down" storm slab layer with stiffer snow on top of softer snow.
This upside-down storm snow layer overlies roughly 50 cm of old storm snow from last week that formed into stiff wind slabs in exposed terrain near ridge top, but remains low density in sheltered areas.
The mid-December layer is now buried 60-80 cm below the surface. The layer includes crusts on south and west facing slopes and feathery surface hoar in sheltered areas at and below treeline, and has been producing moderate, sudden results in recent snowpack tests.
The lower snowpack is generally well settled with a thick prominent crust that was buried near the end of November.
Weather Forecast
Dry with gradually warming alpine temperatures during the week. Cold in the valley bottoms.
MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light southwest. Temperature -12. Freezing level surface.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Ridge wind light west. Temperature -10. Freezing level surface.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light southwest. Temperature -8. Freezing level surface.
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Reactive storm slabs have been reported at all elevations, and are sensitive to both natural and human triggers.