Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Winds are expected to increase, so watch for slab development on lee slopes.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
A weak layer composed of surface hoar and/or crusts is buried 40-60 cm below the surface. Triggering an avalanche on this layer is possible in areas where the snow has settled into a cohesive slab.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
- Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
Avalanche Summary
On Monday, one large (size 2) naturally-triggered avalanche was reported on a north-facing alpine feature that likely failed on the mid-December surface hoar layer. Otherwise, avalanche activity has generally quieted down as the cold weather sets in. There have been some isolated reports of whumpfs at small avalanches failing on the mid-December surface hoar layer, but in most areas the snow above this layer has not settled into a slab yet.
The current forecasters' blog has additional advice on the developing persistent slab problem (click here).
Snowpack Summary
Cold temperatures are preserving roughly 50 cm of low density snow from last week's storms. The snow is being deposited into harder wind slabs in exposed terrain, but remains low density in sheltered areas.
The main question in the snowpack surrounds the mid-December layer sitting beneath the new snow. The layer includes crusts on south and west facing slopes and large feathery surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas at and below treeline. The distribution of the layer, as well as the properties of the snow above it, is variable. The most suspect areas are where the wind has formed stiff slabs above the layer and on slopes with preserved surface hoar.
The lower snowpack is generally well settled with a thick prominent crust that was buried near the end of November.
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, strong west winds, treeline temperatures around -17 C.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting in the afternoon, strong west winds, treeline temperatures around -15 C.
FRIDAY: 10-20 cm of low-density snow, strong west winds, treeline temperatures around -15 C.
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Expect wind slabs at higher elevations where wind has formed pockets of hard snow on the downwind sides of ridges and gullies.