Avalanche Forecast
Lizard Range and Flathead
Dress warm if you go out for a Christmas ride and watch for areas where the snow feels stiff or slabby.
Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.
- Choose well supported terrain without convexities.
Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs
What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?
Expect slabs at higher elevations where northerly winds have formed hard deposits of snow on the downwind sides of ridges and gullies.
Travel and Terrain Advice
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche activity has quieted down as the cold weather sets in, although there have been some isolated reports of whumpfs at small avalanches failing on the mid-December surface hoar layer at lower elevations (e.g. see this Mountain Information Network report). Also, read the current forecasters' blog for more advice on managing the current conditions (click here).
Snowpack Summary
Cold temperatures are preserving 50 to 70 cm of fresh snow from the past week. The snow has been deposited into harder wind slabs in exposed terrain, but remains low density in sheltered areas. The main question in the snowpack surrounds the mid-December layer sitting beneath the new snow. The layer includes crusts on south and west facing slopes and large feathery surface hoar crystals in sheltered terrain at and below treeline. The distribution of the layer, as well as the properties of the snow above it, is variable. The most suspect areas are where the wind has formed a stiff slab above this layer and on slopes with preserved surface hoar. The lower snowpack is generally well settled with a thick prominent crust that was buried near the end of November.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY: Clouds clearing throughout the day, light north winds, treeline temperatures around -20 C.
TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate west winds, treeline temperatures around -20 C.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate west winds, treeline temperatures around -17 C.
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A layer of surface hoar buried 50-70 cm below the surface has the potential to produce surprising avalanches. Triggering this layer is most likely in on steep sheltered slopes at treeline and below.