Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Dec 19, 2017 - 4:34 PM

Valid until

Dec 20, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jfloyer

A significant storm is expected to raise avalanche danger to high for Wednesday.

Regular season
Tuesday - December 19, 2017
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Wednesday - December 20, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Thursday - December 21, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Storm snow totals of 100 cm are likely by Wednesday. Avalanches could be large and run further than expected. It's a good time to throttle back more than you think is required and minimize exposure to overhead hazard as well as the terrain you're on.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a natural and explosive triggered avalanche cycle was reported in the Lizard Range up to size 2.5 or 3. On Tuesday, smaller (size 1.5) avalanches were readily triggered by ski cutting and explosive avalanche control.

Snowpack Summary

50-60 cm new snow now rests on a variety of old surfaces. These old surfaces include crusts on south through west facing slopes, wind-scoured slopes and, in sheltered terrain at and below treeline, large feathery surface hoar crystals. Lower in the snowpack, you should be able to find a hard crust that was buried near the end of November. This crust is approximately 30cm thick and extends from 1600m to mountain top on all aspects. Average snowpack depths at treeline in the region range from 90 to 130cm.

Weather Forecast

Tonight: 10-20 cm new snow expected. Moderate easterly winds.

Wednesday: a further 10-20 cm new snow expected. Moderate northeasterly winds. Treeline temperatures around -8C.

Thursday: Mostly dry during the day. Moderate northwesterly winds. Treeline temperatures around -10C.

Friday: Light snow, 2-5 cm. Light easterly winds. Treeline temperatures around -12C.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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