Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Dec 16, 2017 - 6:04 PM

Valid until

Dec 17, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

ghelgeson

Freshly formed wind slabs may be sensitive to rider triggering at and above treeline Sunday.

Regular season
Saturday - December 16, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 17, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Strong winds Sunday will likely continue to form fresh sensitive wind slabs that will be most prevalent immediately below ridge crest and behind mid slope terrain features. While small, these slabs may be problematic in complex terrain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading may have formed new wind slabs.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday small sluffs and soft slab avalanches were reported up to size 1.

Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Pockets of up to 10cm of new, low density snow now sit on a variety of old snow surfaces that exist throughout the region. Windward slopes have been scoured down to the old rain crust and/or rock. Sun crusts have formed on southerly slopes. In sheltered terrain at and below treeline, very large feathery surface hoar and surface facets (sugary snow) exist. These crystals do not pose a hazard to us now, but once they get buried by new snow they can form a weak layer that may be reactive later.

Roughly 30 to 60cm below the surface you'll likely find a hard crust that was buried near the end of November. This crust is approximately 30cm thick and extends from 1600m to mountain top on all aspects. Below this crust, the snowpack is moist to ground. Average snowpack depths at treeline elevations in the region range from 70 to 110cm.

Weather Forecast

At the moment, most of the atmospheric action is on the Northwest Coast. As this system sinks to the south some very light snow and strong wind is expected to impact the southeast corner of the province on Sunday. A secondary system sliding along the border is expected to have more effect on Monday and Tuesday, stay tuned for more details.

SUNDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level at valley bottom rising to around 1000m through the day, moderate southwest wind at treeline, strong northwest wind at ridgetop, trace of snow possible.

MONDAY: Broken cloud building through the day, freezing level around 1000m, strong to extreme west/southwest wind, 1 to 5cm of snow possible.

TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, 5 to 15cm of snow possible.

Visit avalanche.ca/weather for a more detailed mountain weather forecast.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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