Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Dec 15, 2017 - 4:19 PM

Valid until

Dec 16, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

Fresh wind slabs and small, dry loose avalanches may be reactive to rider triggers.

Regular season
Saturday - December 16, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Sunday - December 17, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - December 18, 2017
Alpine

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The new snow will likely have a poor bond to the old snow surfaces. Fresh wind slabs may form on leeward slopes and dry loose avalanches are possible.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.
  • Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading may have formed new wind slabs.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, natural dry loose and soft slab avalanches were reported up to size 1. With forecast strong ridgetop wind, isolated wind slab and dry loose avalanche activity may occur through the weekend.

Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new, low density snow now sits on a variety of old snow surfaces exist throughout the region. Isolated wind slabs may be found on easterly aspects in the alpine. Windward slopes have been scoured down to the old rain crust or rock and sun crusts have formed on southerly slopes. In sheltered treeline and below treeline terrain, very large feathery surface hoar and surface facets (sugary snow) exist, likely providing decent riding conditions. These crystals do not pose hazard to us now, but once they get buried by new snow they can form a weak layer that may be reactive later.

Roughly 30-60 cm below the surface you'll likely find a hard crust that was buried near the end of November. This crust is approximately 30 cm thick and extends from 1600 m to mountain top on all aspects. Below this crust, the snowpack is moist to ground. Average snowpack depths at treeline elevations in the region range from 70-110 cm.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperatures -7 and freezing levels at valley bottom. Ridgetop wind moderate from the west.

Sunday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures near -8. Ridgetop wind light with strong gusts from the west.

Monday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures near -9. Ridgetop wind light from the southwest.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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