Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Nov 30, 2017 - 4:47 PM

Valid until

Dec 1, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

swerner

The snowpack remains highly variable with few reports from the region. Reactive wind slabs may exist at upper elevations and new snow amounts may be higher than forecast. Use a conservative approach to terrain selection.

Regular season
Thursday - November 30, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Friday - December 1, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Saturday - December 2, 2017
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Winds have redistributed the new snow possibly forming wind slabs 20 to 40 cm thick on lee slopes above 1600 m. The recent snow may have a poor bond to the buried crust.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Limited observations, use a conservative route selection, moderate angled and supported terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded areas, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations have been reported. As wind continues to redistribute the new snow, expect to find wind slabs building in lee areas above 1600 m. In the high alpine, winds have scoured southwest facing slopes, loading northerly aspects. Watch for pillowy snow and signs of instability like hollow, drum-like sounds or shooting cracks. Many areas below treeline are below threshold depths for avalanches. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

At upper elevations20-40 cm of snow has fallen on the crust that formed after last week's rain and warming. At this point, Im not sure if the recent snow is bonding to the buried crust. Ridgetop winds are likely redistributing the new snow above 1600 m, possibly forming wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features. Reports from the area indicate that the buried crust is supportive, up to 10 cm thick and extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The average snowpack depth at treeline elevation is 60-80 cm and may not have reached threshold in most places. A deeper snowpack exists at upper elevations. The snowpack remains highly variable in regards to aspect and elevation.

Weather Forecast

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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