Avalanche Forecast

Lizard Range and Flathead

Date issued

Nov 26, 2017 - 4:28 PM

Valid until

Nov 27, 2017 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

New snow and strong winds are expected to build storm slabs on the recent rain crust. Be extra cautious in leeward areas where wind-deposited, "pillowy" snow maybe present.

Regular season
Sunday - November 26, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Monday - November 27, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Tuesday - November 28, 2017
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Assess how the new snow is bonding to the old crust before committing to any open or steep slopes.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow will form slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Large loose, wet avalanches were reported during last week's rain event. With the arrival of cooler temperatures on Saturday, reports indicate that the snow surface has refrozen and no new avalanche activity has been reported. As snow and wind load the old surface expect to see an increase in activity in the new storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Approximately 5 cm of moist snow overlies the crust that formed following the rain event on November 23rd. The crust is up to 10 cm thick and extends to mountain top elevations on all aspects. The snowpack below the crust is moist to ground. Rain has washed away much of the snow below treeline and in many areas there is not enough snow to produce avalanches.

Weather Forecast

As much as 10-15 cm of snow is forecast for Sunday night along with strong strong winds and lowering freezing levels.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Strong west wind. Alpine Temperature -5. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Alpine Temperature -5. Freezing level 1100m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Moderate to strong west wind. Alpine temperature -5. Freezing level 1100m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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