Date issued

Feb 8, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Valid until

Feb 9, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

stephen holeczi

Avoid all avalanche terrain including crossing runout zones at valley bottom. Natural activity will likely taper over the next couple of days, but human triggering will be as touchy as it gets.

Regular season
Friday - February 9, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Saturday - February 10, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 11, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Three weak layers exist in the mid snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on the aspect and elevation. These layers are very sensitive to triggering both naturally and by human triggering.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are storm slabs up to 1m thick on many aspects and elevations from the big storm on Thursday. These will be highly sensitive to triggering and once initiated, can step down to the deeper persistent layers causing very large avalanches.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Another widespread cycle Thursday to size 3.5 (what we could see) . These were failing on the above mentioned weak layers. Explosive control was producing size 3 avalanches up to 150cm deep with just the explosive hitting the slope. Most of these avalanches are traveling far into the valley bottom which should be a concern for all users.

Snowpack Summary

Thursdays storm dropped 40-50+cm with variable winds. This combined with other recent snow has overloaded the 3 main mid pack concerns which are the Jan 16th, Jan 6th, and Dec.15 weak layers. These are a mix of facets, crusts and surface hoar and can be found 70cm to over 150cm+ deep in the snowpack and are currently producing very easy results.

Weather Forecast

The epic storm has ended and we will see a few "normal" days of weather. -15 to -18C in the alpine Friday with light winds and mainly clear skies and no additional snow.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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