Date issued

Feb 2, 2018 - 4:40 PM

Valid until

Feb 3, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

conrad janzen

We expect another natural avalanche cycle to occur starting Friday night and tapering off late on Saturday. Avoid all avalanche terrain during this time!

Ski resorts and non-avalanche terrain are the places to enjoy the fresh snow right now.

Regular season
Friday - February 2, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Saturday - February 3, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - February 4, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Three weak layers exist in the upper snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on the aspect and elevation. Destructive avalanches have occurred on these and will continue over the few days.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

If the forecasted new snow amounts of 15-20 cm with strong SW winds show up, we will likely see storm slabs failing over the next 24 hrs with potential to step down to deeper layers. Stick to non-avalanche terrain until things have a chance to settle

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Some natural activity observed Friday with a size 2.5 avalanche over Cascade Falls in Banff and some natural avalanches on Mt Stephen in Yoho but visibility was poor. Big avalanches with explosives over the last few days show that snowpack remains prime for triggering. Some avalanches ran full path and put dust or debris on roads.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of new snow Friday with strong SW alpine winds. The main concern in the snowpack continues to be the three persistent weak layers of surface hoar and/or facets that are found between 50 and 100cm down in the snowpack. We continue to observe sudden test results, whumphing and large propagations on these layers. Below this is a faceted base.

Weather Forecast

Friday night and Saturday morning could see as much as 15 to 20 cm of snow in our forecast area along with moderate to strong SW winds. Later in the day we expect to see both the precipitation and winds decrease as the temperatures cool. Sunday and Monday look like scattered flurries, cool temperatures and light winds.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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