Date issued

Jan 31, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Valid until

Feb 1, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

ian jackson

More avalanche control today resulted in many large avalanches, some running to the end of their runouts. Now is a good time to stay out of avalanche terrain!

Regular season
Thursday - February 1, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Friday - February 2, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Saturday - February 3, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are three weak layers in the upper snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on your aspect and elevation. Avalanches are occurring on these layers and human triggering is almost certain.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent winds and new snow have formed slabs in leeward areas of alpine and treeline terrain, and caused natural avalanches. The slabs are plump and ripe for triggering, and will likely step down to persistent weak layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity has tapered slightly, but big results with explosives proves that these layers are prime for triggering. Some avalanches ran full path putting dust or debris on roads. Emerald Lake Slide Path ran naturally size 3.5 in the last 2 days to within 100m of the road. Guinness Gully Ice Climb put debris on the road with explosives

Snowpack Summary

40-80 cm of snow over the last seven days has overloaded 3 persistent weak layers of surface hoar and facets in the upper half of the snowpack: Jan 16 down 30-50cm; Jan 6 down 40-70cm; and Dec15 down 50-100cm. A major avalanche cycle is ongoing with avalanches running fall path on these layers and some stepping down even deeper.

Weather Forecast

Continued light precip and winds on Thursday until the next storm arrives on Friday/ Saturday. Temperatures look to remain cool throughout. 30-40 cm of snow is forecast over the next 3 days. Winds will increase to strong from the west on Friday.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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