Date issued

Jan 27, 2018 - 6:33 PM

Valid until

Jan 28, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

conrad janzen

Human triggering and some natural avalanche activity continues to occur on the various weak layers buried in our snowpack. We expect this to increase Sunday night and Monday. Minimize exposure and avoid large avalanche terrain until things improve!

Regular season
Saturday - January 27, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Sunday - January 28, 2018
Alpine

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Treeline

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions.Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely;human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas;or very large avalanches in specific areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - January 29, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

There are three weak layers in the upper snowpack: Jan 16, Jan 6, and Dec 15. All are a mix of sun crust, surface hoar and facets depending on your aspect and elevation. Avalanches are occurring on these layers and human triggering is likely.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use conservative route selection, choose supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent winds and new snow have formed slabs in leeward areas of alpine and treeline terrain, and caused natural avalanches and small cornice failures. These slabs are starting to bond but can still be triggered and may step down to persistent layers.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Avalanche Summary

More evidence of a widespread cycle on persistent weak layers up to size 3 in the last 48hrs was observed with debris crossing the Takkakaw Falls road below Wapta Peak and numerous slabs out at treeline in the Yoho Valley. One natural size 2.5 cornice triggered slab was observed on Mt Crowfoot near the Wapta Icefields this morning.

Snowpack Summary

Recent alpine winds have created wind slabs in leeward areas up to 1m thick. 35-65 cm of settled snow from recent storms has formed a soft slab over the three persistent weak layers of surface hoar and facets that lurk in the upper half of the snowpack often giving sudden test results. Jan 16 down 35-65cm; Jan 6 down 40-75cm; Dec15 down 55-100cm

Weather Forecast

Temps on Sunday will be in the -5 to-10'C range at treeline with some warming late in the day and 10-15 cm of snow, mostly later in the day. Sunday night should see a rise in temperatures and increased snowfall into Monday which will likely cause a natural avalanche cycle if the current forecast comes true.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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