Date issued

Jan 21, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Valid until

Jan 22, 2018 - 4:00 PM

Prepared by

ian jackson

The snowpack this year is complex with multiple weak layers. Avalanche control last week showed that these layers can be triggered in certain areas, but variable results make it difficult to forecast where. Conservative terrain selection is a must!

Regular season
Monday - January 22, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - January 23, 2018
Alpine

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Wednesday - January 24, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Recent snow and wind are have created new windslabs on lee slopes at alpine and treeline elevations. The winds have been from many different directions over the past few days and have formed these slabs on numerous aspects.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problem 2: Persistent Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

The Dec 15 layer is a concern mainly at treeline around Field, Emerald Lake and Little Yoho - this is a very specific band, although avalanches initiated could run into areas below treeline.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity reported in this forecast region, however, a size 2 windslab was triggered by a skiier in the lake louise ski hill backcountry. This was in semicircular bowl (approximately 2400m NE aspect).

Snowpack Summary

Recent winds have developed windslabs on alpine and treeline lee slopes. In sheltered areas the upper snowpack has 30-50cm of soft slab over the Jan 6 surface hoar. The Dec. 15 surface hoar layer is still a concern and is 60-80 cm down and well preserved at treeline and below.

Weather Forecast

We are in the influence of a SW flow with a series of storms moving in off the coast. Expect light snow ~ 5 cm per day for the next three days. Temps will be cool in the -5 to -15 range and winds generally light to moderate from the SW.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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