Avalanche Forecast

Kootenay Boundary

Date issued

Mar 25, 2018 - 4:37 PM

Valid until

Mar 26, 2018 - 2:00 PM

Prepared by

jmcbride

Fresh slabs overlie a touchy layer of crusts and buried surface hoar. Assess the bond between the new snow and the old surface before committing to bigger slopes.

Regular season
Sunday - March 25, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Monday - March 26, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tuesday - March 27, 2018
Alpine

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation,cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible;human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Below Treeline

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Avalanche Problem 1: Storm Slabs

What Elevation?
Which Slopes?
Chances of Avalanches?
Expected Size?

Southwest wind combined with recent snowfall have formed fresh storm slabs that are not well-bonded to the mix of crusts, surface hoar and facets now buried. Continued snow and wind will increase loading and slab development on this touchy layer.

Travel and Terrain Advice
  • Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable storm snow.
  • Use caution on steep slopes and convex rolls. The new snow may bond poorly to the old surface.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow and wind have formed touchy slabs.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work on Sunday produced numerous size 1.5-2 storm slab results all failing in the recent storm snow (25-40 cm deep) on northwest and north aspects above 2000 m.

Saturday we received reports of several remotely (from a distance) triggered and skier-triggered size 2 storm slab release that failed 40-50 cm deep on a mix of buried crusts, surface hoar and facets. Explosive control work also produced size 1.5-2 storm slab results running on a crust on southeast aspects from 1900 -2000 m. Read more here. And here.

On Friday there were reports of natural (size 1.5-2) storm slab releases on north and west aspects in the alpine that were suspected to have failed overnight during the storm, as well as size 1 skier triggered storm snow releases in steep, leeward terrain.

Reports from Thursday included activity in the recent storm snow including sloughing and small (size 1) storm slab releases from 10 - 20 cm thick above the most recent crust.

Prior to Thursday storm there were no significant avalanche observations to report from earlier in the week.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 - 40 cm of new snow has fallen with moderate to strong southeast to southwest wind. This snow sits on a mixture of weak grains including a slippery crust that is present at all elevations on solar aspects and all aspects below 1900 m elevation. On northerly aspects at and above treeline the new storm snow is burying a mix of large surface hoar and surface facets.

Two other weak layers are present in the upper snowpack. The mid March interface is down 30 to 60 cm and it resembles the old surface; crust on solar, surface hoar on high elevation north.

The early March interface is 50 to 80 cm below the surface and is similar in composition to those listed above.

A few other persistent weak layers are buried in the mid and lower snowpack, but they have gone dormant and are unlikely to resurface until we move into a period with consecutive above-freezing nights later in the spring.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Alpine temperature near -5. Freezing level 1100 m.

TUESDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 10-15 cm. Ridge wind strong, west. Alpine temperature near -3. Freezing level 1600 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Ridge wind moderate, northwest. Alpine temperature near -6. Freezing level 1500 m.

Danger Ratings Explained

1 - Low

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.

Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.

2 - Moderate

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

3 - Considerable

Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.

Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.

Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.

4 - High

Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.

Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.

Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.

5 - Extreme

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.

Large to very large avalanches in many areas.

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